Tuesday, June 24, 2008

Psychic Friends Get The Call From Corporate America

We're jumping into the marketing fray because we feel compelled to comment on things like this....

Parking lots and psychics—those are the businesses to be in these days. According to an article by Tony Dokoupil in Newsweek, companies are shelling out $10,000 plus a month for psychic insights into how to grow their businesses and where to make investments. Of course, they don’t call themselves psychics—no, no. They’ve been “rebranded as ‘intuitionists’ or ‘mentalists’—terms more palatable to mainstream America.” Though the individuals who wax poetic about their positive experiences employing corporate psychics to guide important business decisions, Dokoupil notes, “almost all who spoke to Newsweek also requested anonymity out of concern for their reputations.” Ya, you think?

One ‘mentalist’ profiled in the article Jon Stetson can’t believe his luck [frankly, neither can we] that “after years of performing on cruise ships and in the ‘saddest’ comedy clubs, he now has a Rolodex of businesses, including Fortune 500 companies, that call him for Intuition Workshops—which differ in name only, he says, from psychic workshops.” Another ‘intuitionist,’ Laura Day, author of New York Times best-seller Practical Intuition, regularly trains members of the Harvard Business School Network of Women Alumnae to develop their psychic prowess. Psychic abilities aside, these folks certainly can smell an opportunity (or a sucker) a mile away.

Three points here:

  1. This isn’t new! OK, maybe ‘mentalist’ and ‘intuitionists’ making as much as McKinsey and Bain senior partners IS new, but relying on intuition to guide decisions has been acceptable business practice for more than 20 years.
  2. The power of intuition is a myth. People in business make gigantic, multi-million—sometimes even billion—dollar decisions every day based on little more than a hunch. The question is how many times do pure hunches alone lead to legendary success? The answer is: pretty rarely.
  3. Even psychics have a disclaimer. Sure, we’d all like to be able to see into the future, but even psychics concede “the future is never set in stone.” Laura Day admits she doesn’t always make accurate predictions. Where are the statistics on her success ratio? What’s the ROI on most of her recommendations? We suspect that corporate psychics are wrong most of the time. Ideas grounded in junk science and psychobabble lead companies in the wrong direction much more often than not.

Aside from the utter lunacy of a business hiring a psychic for anything other than entertainment at the company halloween party, we’re concerned that when business folk want to make sense of uncertainty in the present, they get completely preoccupied with the future as if they have no control over it. It’s understandable, but it can be dangerous if they forget that the past and future are not mutually exclusive. The valuable information execs have about their industry, business, and, most importantly, customers from the past could help them better understand their situation, what they need to do, what products and services they need to offer, and what messages they need to communicate in order to navigate to the profitable future they have in mind.

Intuition is OK. We’re not rejecting is wholesale. But it needs to be balanced with experienced judgment and hard facts grounded in unimpeachable data.

5 comments:

stipps said...

Sure, you’re probably snickering at those companies that hired a psychic to guide their business decisions. Maybe you even feel embarrassed for the bottom of the barrel desperation such acts can only represent. And what superior (finally!) disdain you can have for stuffy self-important HBS for so obviously pandering to this sham fad in a pathetically transparent effort to bolster the relevancy of the school and that of the MBA degree, in general, with their out-of-the-box, not-all-spreadsheets-and-charts thinking.
But I bet your first thought was, did it work? …Because you hoped it just might have. …I did too.
So truthfully we can’t condemn their interest in the topic and experimentation, if that’s what it actually is. The weak point, though, is usually not in the attempt, but in the follow-up. If you’re a company exploring its sixth sense, I’d say go for it, but do it wisely. Treat it like any other new marketing tool you’re testing (or should be testing), and keep one eye warily looking outward while the other plumbs new inward depths. Do a series of psychic interventions, not just 1 or 2, and think of each as an experiment in which you compare your business whisperer’s prognostication to management’s estimate (in the absence of news from a break in the space-time continuum). Better yet, make it a 3 or 4-man race and compare Uri Geller, to management’s Lee Iaococca, to the results of Best Practices marketing research. That is, for a new product or campaign, test it among consumers to find out how they would respond. Compare a sales forecast based on these simulated test market results, to internal analogy-based forecasts, if available, to management’s intuition, to what your local Medium says, and finally to actual sales, and determine which gets you more in touch with the future. Do it multiple times, monitor the outcomes via tracking research and sales analysis, and soon enough you’ll have a validation data base to make your case and either refute or confirm the doubting Houdinis. If you can demonstrate that the 4 P’s need to add a fifth, no one will be more excited than me. And if you don’t, you can still hold your head up for striking a blow for the scientific method and maybe preventing others from looking to the stars only to lose sight of the bottom line.

David Flint said...

That sounds very reasonable stipps but experiments cost money and cause distraction. In science we only test hypotheses if there's at least some reason, possibly weak, to think them true.

In this case there are lots of reasons to think the claims of psychics false. Start with the general implausibility of the spirit realm and add the proven fakery of many psychics. The marketing frayers are right - its rubbish.

Michael Baum said...

I think everyone here has a "correct" point of view. Let's face it, marketing is as much art as it is science. The art side is usually reserved for the pretty pictures and clever words and can also include the the applied experience of the practitioner.
In my opinion (and I think the Bloggers')tapping into intuition should be simply another data point among a number of data points upon which to base decisions.

George said...

As in all things paranormal... a fact is a fact, it's the interpretation of the facts by the "deviner" that holds the power. For example, everyone can see that maybe Venus is in Capricorn. It's the interpretation of what that means to you, maybe as a Leo that defines its relevance. It's one's interpretation of what that next Tarot card means that holds the power, and the degree of the rune stones as interpreted by the witch that provides influence. I suppose my arguement is this: if you have good, solid market research and your marketing team cannot "devine" the correct answer from it, I would question the "artistic" abilities (as Michael so gracefully put it)of my team. So far as hiring a psychic, there are only two kinds of spirits out there (and that is true in more than a spiritual sense) and that is not how an angel communicates, if you know what I mean. As David said, it's rubbish.

PS - Thanks Copernicus team for your newsletters and this platform. I enjoy your insight.

Kurt Benbenek said...

If anyone thinks these psychics are onto something, ask them if they'd like to pick up an easy 1 Million Dollars (US, unfortunately):

http://www.randi.org/joom/million-dollar-challenge-blog/challenge-correspondance/million-challenge-e-mail-blog-2.html
http://www.randi.org/

It's a crock and anyone who uses rational tools knows it.
http://www.skepdic.com/psychic.html